Retirement Planning 101

As most of my business is centered around retirement planning, I feel obligated to post more on this topic than any other subject. We live in an era where company pensions have been replaced by 401k plans. While this is great from a company perspective, it puts the burden on you to save for your future AND make smart investment decisions.

Getting Started: How much should I be saving? How much will I need? Will socking away 5% of my pay get me the hammock on the beach? Tough to tell. Whether you are working on your business plan, personal goals or a retirement dream... everything starts with a plan! Put it in writing.

Author Stephen Covey of the popular "7 Habits of Highly Effective People", has it right when he says "Begin with the end in mind." Basically, you have to know the end objective. One of my favorite expressions comes to mind... 'Without a destination, you're probably going to get lost!' Similar to driving a car, we simply don't pull out of the driveway and figure out where we're going an hour later. Retirement planning shouldn't be any different.

Don't be too Conservative: Some investors seem to think their retirement money is sacred and should never be put at risk. This is understandable and true to a certain extent. But, everyone needs some growth to simply outpace the rate of inflation. Some amount of risk is required.

Parking your retirement dollars in a money market account is too conservative. You will not reach your goal with little or no growth. Today's money market accounts are paying around 1%. If we follow "Rule of 72" it will take 72 years to double your money (72/1)! Repeat... 72 years! A well-diversified investment of mutual funds earning 8% over time will require 9 years (72/8). Your principal will vary year-by-year, but you are outpacing the rate of inflation which historically has averaged 3.5% over the last 20 years.

Diversification: Cash/bonds/stocks/real estate/commodities should all be considered when creating a well-diversified portfolio. The low correlation between each group allows for higher returns and less volatility over time. The idea of having 5 different mutual funds does not mean you are well-diversified. If the funds have similar holdings, they will move up/down in tandem. Selecting the percentages (%) of each one for your situation depends upon your risk tolerance, investment experience and time frame.

Should you require guidance in getting started, creating/reviewing a retirement plan or reviewing your current asset allocations, contact your financial advisor.

Remember...... "Begin with the end in mind."

Alternative Investments

The market volatility of 2008 & 2009 have investors questioning their asset allocation. What should go into my retirement plan to enhance long-term returns and yet reduce volatility?

Traditional investments are generally considered to be cash, bonds & stocks. By definition then, Alternative investments are everything else. This would include; real estate, commodities (gold, oil, copper, etc.), hedge funds, private equity, wine, art, etc. However, as time evolves, several of these alternative products are now becoming more common.

There was a time when 401k, 403b and 457 plans would never offer a real estate option. Several plans now offer real estate choices in the form of mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETF). In addition, I'm hearing of more corporations offering commodity investments as well. Considering these same companies cut or eliminated pensions plans, I guess offering you, the valued employee, good choices for your retirement is the LEAST they could do!

Many investors weave Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" into literal meaning. Going off the beaten path is their road to riches. This may be true in some cases. But, it takes a LOT of work. Let me repeat that last part.... a LOT of work!

The simple fact remains: Mutual funds, or ETF's, represent managed money. For a small fee, you pay a Portfolio Manager to watch your investments and report to you on a quarterly basis. His full-time job is to manage a collective pool of money! If we assume a typical investment charges 1.5% for operating expenses, a $50,000 investment would dictate a $500 annual fee. You could certainly manage your own portfolio of wines, gold bullion, forest land, real estate, etc., but you are going to do a LOT of work to stay on top of your investments.

Your time and energy alone will probably require more than a $500 expense on your part. How you value your time... $$$... is another consideration. But, the shear expense of researching, attending meetings, legal expenses, etc. will probably surpass $500 each year.

Lastly, liquidity should be a vital concern. Everyone has emergencies from time-to-time and has to access money beyond their rainy day account. Cash/bonds/stocks can be liquidated the turned into cash often the same day. This cannot be said for real estate, wine, fine art, etc. Months are often required to buy & sell these assets and you have little control over the time frame. In the last couple of years, real estate is a prime example. How many of us know friends who sold a home and waited 9 months or more to complete the sale?

Alternative investments have a place in everybody's portfolio. How they get into the asset mix is your choice.

Market Predictions for 2010

As another year begins, all the market pundits are actively making their predictions for 2010. "International is the place to be... "stick with gold"... "buy tech"... "municipal bonds are attractive due to higher taxes on the horizon."

It's amazing how everyone has an opinion and everyone is the expert. Oddly, some will be correct and many will be dead wrong. But, they will still make predictions every year!

What do I think will happen in the capital markets in 2010?

I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA!

One thing I do know for sure though, asset allocation does work and should be a part of every one's portfolio. Conventional wisdom states cash/bonds/stocks/real estate & commodities should be included in every ones portfolio. Your allocations will vary based on goals & risk tolerance.

Similar to a baseball team, you should have someone at each position. After all, if everyone is playing first base and the ball gets hit to center field, you missed the action! This isn't to say you couldn't shift the left fielder a little towards center or move the third baseman in just in case there's a bunt.

Matter of fact, this could be a good strategy for 2010. Volatility was running wild in both 2008 and 2009. Unfortunately, the downward pressure of 2008 left people queasy. Along came 2009 with upside volatility and everyone felt better.

So, if we're back to some sort of equilibrium point in the capital markets, what comes next? Once again; I don't know, but I think quality of earnings will be a huge factor this year. Predictable, high quality earnings from large companies with a history of solid earnings & dividends should be rewarded this year. In the mutual fund world, this means large cap domestic equity funds should benefit.

International/emerging market exposure would have to be considered a good investment class as well. The weak US dollar will continue to plague our nation until the budget deficit is addressed. Unfortunately, correcting this issue will take years. I'm certain the U.S. dollar will rally from time-to-time simply based on news flow, but this will probably be short lived. Competing against currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand & Canadian dollar will prove challenging.

While our gross domestic product (GDP) struggles to show positive growth, several emerging market countries are showing GDP growth of 5%-8% per year. Some countries are simply in better financial shape than we are due to import/export balances. The US continues to import more than we export, so our trade balance is never favorable. Too many people consuming products not readily available in our country is a problem.

So, increasing your international and/or emerging market equity exposure would seem prudent. Not only should this enhance your long-term performance, it should lower your portfolio risk or volatility due to the lower correlation with US equities.

Merry Christmas...

In the old days, it was not called the Holiday Season; the Christians called it 'Christmas' and went to church; the Jews called it 'Hanukkah' and went to synagogue; the atheists went to parties and drank. People passing each other on the street would say 'Merry Christmas!' or 'Happy Hanukkah!' or (to the atheists) 'Look out for the wall!'

~Dave Barry ~ "Christmas Shopping: A Survivor's Guide"

Tiger Woods - Prenuptial Agreement

Everything is negotiable. Even prenuptial agreements.

This week, Investment News reported that Tiger Woods wife, Elin Nordegren, was renegotiating her multi-million dollar prenuptial agreement. According to published reports, the current arrangement requires the couple to be married for at least 10 years before Ms. Nordegren could collect $20 million.

The updated version appears to have a $5 million immediate payment. And, there could be an additional $55 million added to the overall agreement.

Perhaps I'm a little naive. I understand the benefits of prenuptial agreements for estate planning purposes. However, a young, vibrant, couple shouldn't be addressing financial matters as it pertains to their marriage. There are bigger issues to address.

Yes, I understand individuals of this magnitude have to protect their brand name and earnings potential. The brand name has already been tarnished, so perhaps just the future earnings from golf events are at stake.

Renegotiating terms of a marriage is a bad omen. Their two children may be the glue that makes them stay together - if possible. If there weren't children involved, I'd venture a guess this marriage would be over. Tiger would move on and do his thing. And, as reported by the New York Daily News, Elin would probably retreat to her recently purchased estate in Sweden.

Holiday Book List 2009

Okay, so it's not the Oprah Book Club, but I cover different topics anyway! So without further delay, here are my favorite finance books and then some for 2009. Some new, some old, and in no particular order!











Where Men Win Glory: The Odyssey of Pat Tillman- Jon Krakauer

The bestselling author of Into the Wild, Into Thin Air, and Under the Banner of Heaven delivers a stunning, eloquent account of a remarkable young man’s haunting journey. Like the men whose epic stories Jon Krakauer has told in his previous bestsellers, Pat Tillman was an irrepressible individualist and iconoclast. In May 2002, Tillman walked away from his $3.6 million NFL contract to enlist in the United States Army. He was deeply troubled by 9/11, and he felt a strong moral obligation to join the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Two years later, he died on a desolate hillside in southeastern Afghanistan.

Zen In The Markets - Edward Allen Toppel

A veteran trader takes a Zen approach to the stock market, applying fundamental principles of Zen Buddhism in place of traditional economic thought and encouraging investors to put egos aside and listen to the marketplace in a tested method for success.

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders - Jack Schwager

How do the world’s top traders make millions of dollars in the markets – sometimes in a matter of only weeks or even days? That’s precisely the question Jack Schwager was trying to answer when he interviewed 17 superstar money-makers including Richard Dennis, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Marty Schwartz, Tom Baldwin and others. After reading this best-selling book, you’ll know what ingredients enable these top traders to consistently work their financial magic in the markets while so many others walk away losers. One of the top-selling trading books of all-time!

The Greatest Trade Ever - Gregory Zuckerman

“How Paulson and a handful of contrarian investors pulled off this once-in-a-lifetime coup is the subject of The Greatest Trade Ever ... a fascinating and believable counter-narrative to the growing pile of books recounting the disastrous mistakes made by many of the supposedly smartest minds on Wall Street. It is also a surprisingly dramatic work...In The Greatest Trade Ever, Zuckerman skillfully shows how Paulson and a few cohorts anticipated a disaster and figured out a way to profit.”--BusinessWeek

Rich Dad, Poor Dad - Robert Kiyosaki

Anyone stuck in the rat-race of living paycheck to paycheck, enslaved by the house mortgage and bills, will appreciate this breath of fresh air. Learn about the methods that have created more than a few millionaires. This is the first abridged miniature edition of Rich Dad Poor Dad. The full-length edition has sold millions as a New York Times bestseller. As proven by the runaway success of The Secret and like titles, changing one’s thinking to influence one’s fortune sells big, and forms the basis of rich dad’s advice. Learn to think like a rich dad and let your money work for you!

Who Moved My Cheese - Spencer Johnson & Kenneth Blanchard

Change can be a blessing or a curse, depending on your perspective. The message of Who Moved My Cheese? is that all can come to see it as a blessing, if they understand the nature of cheese and the role it plays in their lives.

Who Moved My Cheese? is a parable that takes place in a maze. Four beings live in that maze: Sniff and Scurry are mice--nonanalytical and nonjudgmental, they just want cheese and are willing to do whatever it takes to get it. Hem and Haw are "littlepeople," mouse-size humans who have an entirely different relationship with cheese. It's not just sustenance to them; it's their self-image. Their lives and belief systems are built around the cheese they've found. Most of us reading the story will see the cheese as something related to our livelihoods--our jobs, our career paths, the industries we work in--although it can stand for anything, from health to relationships.

The point of the story is that we have to be alert to changes in the cheese, and be prepared to go running off in search of new sources of cheese when the cheese we have runs out.

How Charts Can Help You In the Stock Market - William Jiler

As classic and timeless as Graham & Dodd's Security Analysis, William Jiler's How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market is the must-have primer on technical analysis.

First published in 1962, it was the first book to explain how all investors can use charting to more profitably time both their buys and sells and is globally renowned to this day for helping traders and investors use the tools of technical analysis to increase their profits.
Featuring a new Foreword by the investing experts at Standard & Poor's, this special reprint edition will be an excellent resource for beginners as well as a vital reference for experienced technicians. Technical traders will look to it for:
*Tips for removing the mystery from the use of technical analysis
*Easy-to-understand definitions of technical analysis topics
*Examples and explanations of essential configurations, patterns, and formations

Andy Rooney: 60 Years of Wisdom and Wit - Andy Rooney

Chairs. Neat people. Ugliness. War. Over six decades of intrepid reporting and elegant essays, Andy Rooney has proven a shrewd cultural analyst—unafraid to question the sometimes ridiculous, often surprising facts of our lives. Rooney’s great gift is telling it straight, without a hint of sugar coating, but with more than a grain of truth and humor. His take on America? “It’s just amazing how long this country has been going to hell without ever having got there.” On food? “There’s more dependable mediocrity than there used to be.”

Andy Rooney: 60 Years of Wisdom and Wit brings together the best of more than a half-century of work (including long-out-of-print pieces from his early years) in an unforgettable celebration of one of America’s funniest men. Like Mark Twain, Finley Peter Dunne (Mister Dooley) and Will Rogers, Andy Rooney is a classic chronicler of America, a writer for the ages.

Cyber Monday 2009

I'm not exactly sure how Cyber Monday came about, but I could venture a guess. Since the Internet boom of the late '90's, the world wide web became main stream America. Retailers simply figured out another way of selling their goods.

We now refer to the savvy companies as 'bricks & clicks' type businesses. Come to think of it, doesn't every company have a website and a store front? Everyone from Target to Sports Authority to Home Depot to WalMart fits the bill. Perhaps the only TRUE online company is Amazon.com. They have a wonderful online presence, a wide variety of merchandise and no traditional bricks & mortar stores.

Retailers are a crafty lot. I'm sure Cyber Monday was a marketing idea that caught on. Someone should get rewarded for their efforts. However, it kind of seems like a Hallmark holiday to me. Plenty of advertisement and conversation, but no significant meaning.

What do I know though? In due time, today may become a national holiday. Stranger things have happened.