Friday, December 26, 2008

Predictions for 2009

The coming year should be full or surprises and disappointments. This never changes. Some things will catch us off guard and others will pleasantly surprise us. So it is with no fanfare, I present my predictions and/or expectations for 2009 (financial & non-financial).

  • A new President will be ushered into the White House in January.

  • Apple will continue it's tech dominance and gain computer market share.

  • "Marley & Me" will be a blockbuster film in 2009 (although it starts 12.25.08).

  • Big pharmaceutical companies will be in favor due to large dividend yields.

  • To prevent social security insolvency, the government announces people born after 1960 will be eligible for full retirement benefits at the age of 70 (currently 67).

  • Roger Clemens will formerly announce his retirement from baseball (although he didn't play at all in the 2008 season).

  • Thousands of NEW children will start college.

  • New SEC Chairman (or Chairwomen) Mary Schapiro reinstates the uptick rule.

  • CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer will have his show cancelled (or completely revamped).

  • Congressman Barney Frank of Massachusetts is forced to resign as Chairman of the Finance Committee due to his lack of oversight and the defacto bankruptcy of Fannie Mae (I'll be the first to admit, this may be more wishful thinking on my part).

  • The New York Yankees will open their season on April 16 against the Cleveland Indians at a new stadium in the Bronx, NY.

  • High quality corporate bonds will offer better risk adjusted returns than stocks.

  • Despite the recent press on Bernie Madoff, the demise of Hedge Funds is greatly overstated and they continue to attract high net worth money.

  • Individuals will continue to fund 401K and IRA accounts.

  • John Grisham will release 3 new books.

  • Alternative asset classes will start to attract new money again (i.e. real estate, commodities).

  • NFL legend, Brett Favre, retires after playing one season with the New York Jets.

    • Adults with young children will buy life insurance.

    • Two large mutual fund companies will merge.

    • Ford will sell more vehicles than any other US car manufacturer.

    • John Daly will officially retire from golf and become a Hooter's employee.

    • Oil finishes the year at $70 per barrel as the US dollar weakens against foreign currencies.

    • County Tyrone repeats as All Ireland Gaelic Football Champions.

    • After enhancing their bullpen in the off season, the New York Mets make it back to the post season, but fall short of winning the World Series.

    • Municipal bonds become attractive total return investments as President Obama continues to talk about raising taxes (income, capital gains & dividends).

      As you can tell, some things are mentioned with a little sarcasm. Nobody can accurately predict what's going to happen in 2009. We do now that some things are constant and everything else is perpetual motion. Several websites (CNN & Bloomberg to name two) have predictions for the capital markets next year. Are they correct? Who knows! Their guess is as good as yours. The only guarantee we do have for 2009.... a lot of things will change and some things won't. Such is life.

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