Friday, August 27, 2010

Moral Dilemma - Where Did We Go Wrong?



What happened to personal responsibility?

Everything from brokerage accounts to mortgages and from Little League to Pop Warner football are in play.

We seem to be building a nation of bad decisions. Some may call it morals, others ethics. Call it what you like, there's something wrong with this trend. People are walking away from personal commitments & responsibilities when things don't go there way.

Parents are letting their children quit their sports program in mid-season. Why? The parent and/or child didn't feel they were getting enough playing time. Correct me if I'm wrong... aren't 9 players a minimum requirement to field a baseball team. Due to injuries, vacations, family obligations, etc. every child is needed plus a few extras. There's a reason it's considered a 'team sport'. Everyone relies upon one another. Here's a novel idea: Let your child finish the entire season and then decide if they want to play next year.

In the grown up version, we can discuss mortgages. Everyone wanted to own real estate in some capacity from 2000-2007. It didn't matter if you were buying a primary residence, flipping properties or rehabbing for profit. People were blinded by dollars and real estate was the "It" investment. The herd mentality was running wild.

Unfortunately, when the music stopped, thousands of 'investors' were left holding properties they couldn't afford. When times were good and everyone was making money, nobody complained. Now that the winds of profit have turned, everyone was quick to point a finger for their financial difficulties. Very rarely did you hear, "I made a bad decision." But, rather "The bank took advantage of me." "I didn't know what I was signing." I'll be the first to admit, the banks weren't angelic in this whole process. But, let's cite the facts. They simply made money available. They didn't contact you! Further, for the individuals who borrowed money, didn't you have an attorney representing you during the entire process? I don't see how the banks are the bad guys in this scenario. When you went to closing, you had the option of signing your mortgage documents or not - with legal counsel present. What am I missing?

Our moral compass has gone astray in recent years. Personally, I tend to think it started with the dot.com era and day trading. A similar scenario unfolded with brokerage accounts and margin requirements.

I'm not sure how we get back on track, but I tend to think our economic recovery is going to have a direct correlation to our moral standards.





Tuesday, August 3, 2010

The Killer called Inflation


"Inflation is as frightening as a robber and as dangerous as a hit man."

Ronald Reagan - 40th President of the United States


Good retirement planning can be crushed by the unknown... inflation. Recent years have shown benign, if not deflationary figures. However, since 1980, inflation has averaged about 3% per year.

How can this effect your retirement savings? We all know that things will cost more, but here are a few examples assuming annual inflation of 3% per year over 20 years:
  • House - Current: $200,000 Future: $364,424
  • Loaf of bread - Current: $3.00 Future: $4.47
  • Car - Current: $30,000 Future: $54,664

Some of these figures may not thoroughly register. But, let's look at things with a retirement angle. You have to try and keep up with the rate of inflation via your investments. Sitting in a conservative account (ie. money market fund) earning 1% per year, is a sure fire way of failing to reach your retirement plan.

You have to outpace the rate of inflation to stay ahead of the curve. A retiree living on a fixed income of $30,000 cannot sustain spikes or long term increases in inflation. Oil & gas drastically increased a few years ago and then retreated. This effected a number of people, not to mention summer vacation plans. Long term increases will permanently decrease purchasing power AND your lifestyle.

Your retirement income can decrease by 50% if inflation averages 4% over 18 years. Retiring at 60 or 62 sounds good on paper, but unless there's an ample amount of pension money, retirement savings, real estate, etc, to last another 20-30 years, you could be selling yourself short.

Longevity and healthy living is an amazing concept... don't be overly cautious with your retirement investments.