British Petroleum (BP)

Okay, let's jump right into the uncharted waters (sorry for the pun) and discuss British Petroleum (BP). This is center stage these days and let's face it... there are numerous issues at hand.

The environment is number one. The delicate balance between the ecosystem and the gulf coast region may be forever changed. Wild life, shorelines, jobs and all derivative related issues will be effected (ie. recreational activities, gas prices, etc.) for years to come.

A secondary issue pertains to energy costs & future drilling. I'll be the first to admit, it doesn't seem like BP had a back up plan for deep water drilling. As you can tell from the picture above, there are hundreds of oil rigs in the gulf coast between the Florida panhandle and Texas. This isn't new, they've been there for years. How many are deep water drilling platforms is unknown. Drilling more than 1 mile below sea level can be problematic in a number of different scenarios.

"People complain by nature." We've all heard this expression. We have to somehow find a balance between allowing oil companies to drill for oil while protecting the environment. According to the Financial Times, the Obama administration has apparently halted all dig water drilling until further notice and is seeking to prosecute BP on criminal and civil charges to the 'full extent of the law.' If laws were broken, there should be an investigation into wrong doings. No doubt. In the meantime though, isn't this more of a distraction that anything else? I'd prefer BP to focus on solving the problem and not getting a legal team in place to defend future litigation.

Should oil go back above $100 per barrel and gas prices skyrocket to $5.00 per gallon, the real complaining will start. The rhetoric of "Our government should better regulate big oil companies and the price of gasoline." Now that a drilling moratorium is in place, oil companies with platforms in US waters will see a reduction in earnings and will probably layoff idle workers until further notice. I wonder if Washington is helping these people???

In USA Today, some interesting statistics were revealed today as to the manpower and efforts taking place in the gulf of Mexico region. Here are a few statistics:

* 6.625 inches - Size of pipe leaking oil.

* 20,000+ - Number of government & private workers cleaning up coastline(s).

* 1,900+ - Vessels, aircraft, etc. involved in containment and cleanup of oil.

* 13.8 million - Gallons of oil/water recovered.

* 120+ - Controlled burns to reduce/eliminate oil from water.

* 993,000 - Gallons of chemicals used to treat contamination.

We may have a long road ahead of us. I just hope BP and our government have the manpower and financial resources to complete the job. BP may simply run out of money and at some point be forced into bankruptcy (they've allegedly already spent $1 billion on cleanup efforts). I hope this doesn't happen, but depending on the magnitude of what's to come, it's certainly possible.

US Stock Market Statistics

The equity markets have provided wonderful growth opportunities and have built tremendous amounts of wealth throughout history. This is NOT to say there isn't any risk associated with the capital markets because there is always a risk/return equation for everything in life.

If history can be used as a guide, investors should expect to see routine declines of 5-10% quite often with more more pronounced retreats every few years. Since 1900 (through 12/31/2009) there have been 374 corrections of at least 5% and 32 declines of 20% or more.

So, a lot of history made short - bull & bear markets - are actually healthy and should be considered part of the overall game plan. Don't panic. Maintain your perspective and make sure your portfolio is aligned with your long term financial goals. If the ups/downs are too much for you to take, a more conservative portfolio may be appropriate.

US Stock Market Scorecard:

***"Routine" Declines (5%+ loss) happened 374x since 1900, occur 3.4x per year and last 39 days on average.

***"Moderate" Corrections (10% + loss) have happened 121x since 1900, occur 1.1x per year and last 105 days on average.

***"Severe" Corrections (15% + loss) have happened 60x since 1900, occur 0.5x per year and last 208 days on average.

***"Bear" Markets (20% + loss) have happened 32x since 1900, occur 0.3x per year and last 372 days on average.

Greece: Cradle to Grave

The Hellenic Republic, also known as Greece, has fallen to new lows in economic reality. The largely socialist country credited for starting the Olympics is now realizing entitlement programs and the 'better of the nation' mentality - doesn't work monetarily.

Since joining the Economic Union in 1981 and the Economic and Monetary Union in 2001, Greece has struggled with its national budget and trade deficits.

Without detailing current events - economic bailout, strikes, protests, etc. - the bigger picture may pertain to it's survival in the Euro zone and the Euro single currency.

Let's admit the obvious, having partners in any business endeavor is difficult. Greece is currently 1 of 16 nations comprising the European single currency ("Euro"). Making its debut in 1999, Greece qualified to join the Euro in 2000. Although they only represent about 4% of Euro zone GDP, their financial woes are now having repercussions throughout Europe & the world.

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been a vocal critic of a Greek bailout package. Only recently has she agreed to an aid package with strict Euro guidelines going forward. Merkel has been calling for the EU treaties to be re-opened to rewrite the rules.

"The Germans are really on their own there" said a European Diplomat.

I may be on my own in making this prediction: The Euro will disappear in the future. It may not be in our lifetime, but significant changes are inevitable. It is far too difficult having one partner with political, economic and cultural differences, yet alone 16 nations. Over time, we'll come to admire countries like England and Switzerland for their stubborn pride in not relinquishing the Pound Sterling and Swiss Franc in 1999.

Financial Fitness 101

We all know the drill. Go to the gym several times per week, do the same exercises and make little or no progress. How many of us have been in this situation? This is why cross training is so important. Different exercises give you better results.

Do you see where I'm going with this one?

Asset allocation is the king of cross training when it comes to retirement planning! You can't have all your investments in one asset class and expect different results. Diversifying your portfolio to include cash/bonds/stocks/real estate/commodities is the key to long term growth and the reduction in volatility or risk.

Many of you have heard my baseball analogy in the past. For those of you, I apologize if I'm repeating myself. If we knew where the batter was going to hit the ball, we put everyone in that position. Loading up on 9 players in left field sounds good if you're dealing with a pull hitter. But, should the ball go to any other position, you have a problem. You missed the action.

Same thing applies to investing. Don't put all your $$$ into large US stocks and avoid the rest of the universe. The world has become one market in many regards and there are a ton of opportunities beyond our borders. Certain companies should provide a great reference point. For example, Porsche, Dannon, Nestle, Fox TV, Nintendo and Budweiser are all foreign companies.

Lastly, investing and exercising should NOT be all or nothing. Consistent investing in good/bad times is key to long term success. When thunder clouds appear, have the courage to push forward.

Instant Gratification - The "Now" Generation

After last weeks post, a good friend made a very observant comment. He stated, you rarely hear the words,

"This will take hard work, but will be worth it in the end."

He makes an excellent point. The "Now" generation, as I often call it, thrives on instant gratification. Hard work is perceived on a much shorter time horizon and results are expected sooner rather than later.

Considering the world we know live in, this makes sense to a certain extent. Gone are the days of calling your parents to let them know you arrived at your destination. "Not being near a phone" was a good excuse in the '80's. Today? Finding a pay phone is a bigger challenge. We now communicate with each other instantly via cellphones, texting or email.

1 hour photo has morphed into digital photography. 10 minute abs are now 7 minute abs. and movies can now be rented through your TV. Technology has transcended just about everything we do.

Recent statistics reveal cell phones have now penetrated 90% of the American public. Boy, that was fast! I've seen historic reports indicating TV and radio required about 50 years to reach a similar penetration level. As Bob Dylan would sing, "The Times They are a Changing."

Even dieting has joined the generational time warp. Didn't it use to take hard work to lose 5-10 pounds? Since the beginning of time, losing weight has been a knife & fork endeavor. Toss in some daily exercise and you're on your way. Earlier this week, I heard how we could 'supercharge' our diet. "Lose weight faster" they claimed. When does it end? Take a pill before bed and wake up 10 pounds lighter in the morning? Hasn't losing weight and/or toning your body always been hard work? When did it become fun?

Retirement planning is now falling into this mind set as well. Investors are getting a little edgy due to the lost decade (2000-2010). Many baby boomers are now realizing the late '90's wasn't typical as the S&P500 returned double digit returns for five consecutive years. Unfortunately, they starting relying on this type of accelerated growth and didn't feel the need to fund their retirement every year. The last 10 years has has been a wake up call for many and they are now trying to catch up.

Anything worthwhile takes discipline, courage and HARD WORK. This will never change!

"Stop Acting Rich..." Part 2

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a blog on the excellent book, "Stop Acting Rich... and Start Living Like a Real Millionaire" by Thomas J. Stanley. Now that a few weeks have passed, a little more reflection is in order.

For starters, Stanley emphasizes some very basic points - most of which I agree. As a Financial Advisor, I'll comment on two of the more relevant:

1. People are very self conscious and care how they are viewed by others.
2. People don't like to compromise.

I'm fond of saying, "Perception is reality." Driving around in a fancy sports car doesn't make you rich. However, today's younger generation(s) will see this as a sign of affluence. "He must be rich... look @ that car!" Unfortunately, a great deal of these people fall into the category of "Big hat, no cattle." The author is quick to point out the individual may not have $100 to his/her name, but they look good!

Statistics show the typical millionaire drives a Toyota or Ford. Pretty shocking to some, but not to the wealthy who drive these reliable cars. My dad use to tell me cars get you from point A to point B. That's it. And, as a bonus, give the car enough time and the value goes to zero!

The affluent tend to invest in assets that appreciate over time. Boats, cars & toys are generally NOT in this category. They're certainly fun to have, but not good investments. If you're trying to build wealth, these items are a disaster to your financial health.

We live in an instant gratification society... "I want it now." Gone are the days of saving up for a big purchase. "Consumption Nation" is an expression that has reflected the purchasing behavior of Americans for several decades. It is reported, most people now carry average credit card balances of $7,500. My radio friend Dave Ramsey is mortified by this statistic. The added expense of living beyond your means is devastating.

I'll be the first to admit, there's nothing wrong with spending money. If you've covered your financial obligations (retirement, children's college expenses, etc.), you deserve to enjoy your hard work. Live large! If you haven't, find the discipline to do the right thing for your financial future.

"Stop Acting Rich..."

"I spent a lot of my money on booze, birds and fast cars;

the rest I just squandered"

George Best

In his recent book "Stop Acting Rich... and start living like a real millionaire, " author Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D. has surpassed his own classic "The Millionaire Next Door." Both books are excellent in my opinion, but the latter adds recent economics to the scenario.

The author makes a clear distinction between being rich and acting rich. He considers the former to be individual/couples with a high net worth, or balance sheet affluent (BA). The latter are people with high current incomes or income affluent (IA). The BA's can withstand pretty much any type of financial scenario and prevail. They also have assets that appreciate over time. The IA's are only as good as their income and often do not have money set aside for future goals. They are only as good as their income.

Stanley makes a great observation early in the book:

"Proprietors of small businesses, the segment I estimate to contain the largest number of millionaires, are ranked fifth or third from the bottom on a seven-point scale of status characteristics. On the other hand, one can be very upper middle class and have a level of net worth nowhere near seven figures... It is my belief that the number of households in America that are interested in looking wealthy is far greater than the number that are interested in being wealthy."

One clearly defined theme through out the book? The typical millionaire is not who you may think and their spending habits are vastly different than what you would expect!

Here are some millionaire statistics:

• There are just over 4 million millionaire households in America.
  
  
• In 2007, about 2.2 million American seniors passed away. Collectively, the earned more than $2 trillion in income during their lifetimes, yet only 2.6% left behind estates worth more than $1 million.



• The 'glittering' wealthy (rock stars, actors, sports figures) are NOT the typical millionaire.



• Often people who dress and drive as if they are rich are not (most millionaires drive Ford & Toyota vehicles).



• Real millionaires (male) pay about $16 for a haircut at a traditional barbershop.



• Only 5.7% of millionaires paid more than $1,000 for a suite (average price was $482).



• Top 10 clothing stores for male millionaires include: Nordstrom, Macy's, Kohl's, Target, Costco, Dillard's, Brooks Brothers, Gap, WalMart & T.J. Max



• Top 10 clothing stores for women millionaires include: Ann Taylor, Nordstrom, Macy's, Target, T.J. Maxx, Talbots, Gap, Costco, Lord & Taylor & Saks Fifth Avenue.
  

• Most millionaires live in homes valued between $300,000 - $400,000.
  
  
• The medium priced bottle of wine served to guests = $13.09.
  
  
• One in nine millionaires wears a Timex watch (often purchased at WalMart).
  
  
• The majority of millionaires (70%) have never owned a boat or a yacht, not even a raft.
  
  Lastly, we live in a marketing influenced society. Many products solely exist because of advertising. The author points to Vodka as a great example. The Federal government's definition of vodka is as follows:
  
  

  "Vodka... without distinctive character, aroma, taste of color."
  
  

  How is it then we have 300 different brands of vodka??? Based on the government's definition - vodka is essentially a commodity & the lowest price should be the end objective. Ahhh... this is where marketing comes into play! "Our brand is #1." "Best in taste tests!" Or the Grey Goose perennial favorite, "Judge for Yourself!"

  I'll be the first to admit, I'm not a vodka connoisseur. However, when the product doesn't have an aging process, oak barrels or anything referring to "10 years old," etc., what am I paying for? Marketing & brand recognition is the only way to differentiate the products. You can pay $65 for Grey Goose or purchase Smirnoff for $18.99. Your choice.